Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for January 27

by Scott Hoffman on January 27, 2012

Markets continue to be supported by stories that Greece is near an agreement to reformat their debt. After two good days for “risk on” assets we’re due for some correction but I thought yesterday’s shallow correction showed underlying strength in equities.  Grains were mixed on South American weather and good demand, but higher prices will serve to choke off some demand. Crude oil is in the middle of its range, hemmed in by Iran and the effects that higher crude prices would have on demand.

March eMini S&P Futures:  It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day; yesterday’s low at 1309.25 is the reference price.  Yesterday saw negative action in the stock indices; I’d be playing for a reversal up off early weakness.
March T Bonds:  I’d treat today as a TTT Sell Short day; yesterday’s inside day argues for caution.  I’d watch the 143-00 area as the reference price; Wednesday’s high at 143-16 is the next point of interest. I’d watch the 143-00 area as a longer term trend tell.
March Euro:  Treat as a breakout setup. On the downside watch the overnight low at 1.3078 and Fibonacci retracement support at 1.3060; on the upside watch 1.3135 and today’s high at 1.3163.
March Canadian Dollar:  It’s a Sell Short day and yesterday was an NR4 day – will it be worth trading today?
Feb Gold:  By the Taylor Trading Technique today is a Sell Short day. For the bulls, I wouldn’t be excited about owning it unless it can close over major Fib retracement level at 1724.50. I would be looking to buy a break, watching the 1700 area as key support.
March Silver:  Sell Short day.  Bulls should watch the previous 3277.5 pivot high as a support point.
March Copper:  Sell Short day.  Bulls should watch the previous 3.8340 pivot high as a support point.
March Sugar:  Breakout setup; look for more downside under Wednesday’s low at 24.39.
March Coffee:  Breakout setup. I’m watching the Jan low at 216.60 as the downside breakout point.
March Cotton:  Breakout setup; I’m interested in buying but on strength only.
March Crude Oil:  The 99-100area is the middle of the recent range; there’s just not much to do in the middle for the time being.
March Natural Gas:  It’s due for a TTT Buy day. Yesterday’s low was 2.588 and there’s Fib support at 2.564.
April Live Cattle:  Buy day, yesterday’s low at 127.67 is the reference price; the first rally objective at 128.67 is the first rally objective.
March Soybeans:  It’s an ‘exit breakout buys’ day, watch the 1230 area as the reference price level for a Sell Short day.
March Corn:  It fell back to make a doji yesterday; will there be a Buy day today?  I’d consider buying on strength this morning as long as there’s not a big gap higher open.
March Bean Oil:  It’s an exit b.o. buys day. Yesterday’s high at 52.00 is the reference price; watch the Fib retracement level at 51.92 as a longer term trend pivot point.

This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.

The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

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Gold Futures, the Fed, and the Taylor Trading Technique

by Scott Hoffman on January 25, 2012

Yesterday afternoon I was talking to another trader about the gold futures.  We were talking strategy for it today in light of today’s FOMC meeting.  I told him I wanted to buy it today. Yesterday was a down day, a Sell Short day according to the Taylor Trading Technique. That meant today was a TTT Buy day with yesterday’s low at 1661.00 basis Feb. futures as today’s reference price.

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Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for January 25

January 25, 2012

Greek debt talks continue, no results, but there’s more contention from some key players. The IMF wants the ECB to take a haircut on its Greek holding, but the central bank is not keen to do that; the IIF negotiator also thinks the ECB should play along.  January’s reading of the German IFO index of [...]

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Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for January 24

January 24, 2012

Greek debt talks have reached a stalemate as private investors are unwilling to take as large a haircut as the Greeks are seeking.  This is weighing on the financial services sector.  Traders are also looking at Portugal again, seeing if Portugal would be the next domino to fall.  January PMI reports for Europe came in [...]

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Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for January 23

January 23, 2012

It’s the Chinese New Year; this is taking some of the liquidity out the markets.  Talks about Greek debt restructuring have failed to reach a deal.  Traders aren’t worried about this yet although it had been hoped they would get a deal wrapped up in time for the Ecofin meeting today and tomorrow.  It’s also [...]

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How to Find Trade Entries on Trend Days in Futures Markets

January 20, 2012

One of the most common questions I get asked is what trading sessions I use, both for charting and for trading.  When things were solely pit traded it was easy; there was only one set of trading hours.  Electronic trading makes for two sets of trading hours and charts so it’s harder to define what [...]

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Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for January 20

January 20, 2012

Talks go on over a Greek debt solution.  I don’t think anything worse than a “puppies and rainbows” solution is priced in but the markets appear to remain optimistic.  The EU finance ministers meet next Monday and Tuesday; I’d expect they’d like to get a Greek plan drawn up for it.  The 3-month Euro cross-currency [...]

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Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for January 19

January 19, 2012

Good news on the EU front – Spanish and French debt auctions saw good demand and there are newswire stories that Greek debt talks are nearing a deal.  The US saw good earnings numbers from B of A and Morgan Stanley. On the data front, CPI showed inflation is still under wraps while a big [...]

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Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for January 18

January 18, 2012

Markets found support from news that the IMF is seeking to expand its lending resources in order to be able to serve as a bailout fund.  US news was scanty today.  Grains were lower as forecasts show a widespread rain event for Argentina for this weekend, helping the SA corn crop.  Brazil is not expected [...]

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Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for January 17

January 17, 2012

By issuing their ratings cuts on Friday afternoon S&P managed to prevent the type of violent reaction that could have occurred if done around normal trading hours.  Europe still has problems – the Greek bailout talks are thorny (to say the least) and much of the EU and the EFSF are still on negative credit [...]

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