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Stocks continued in tight ranges overnight; there’s economic news coming out of China tonight and the US tomorrow and Friday.  OPEC forecast a 12.5% rise in oil demand this year, fostered by economic growth.  Today we get the EIA Crude inventory report at 9:30, the results of the 10 Year T Note auction at Noon, and Geithner is testifying to Congress about the FY2011 budget; that starts at 1 PM.  The WASDE report from the USDA was bearish corn and wheat, neutral for beans.  Read more... (673 words, estimated 2:42 mins reading time)

Yesterday’s lackluster session in the US carried through to muted trading in Asia overnight.  Chinese stocks saw small gains on some decent earnings reports, but Chinese traders are waiting for a number of economic releases due Thursday.  European stocks were lower on concerns over the banking system.  Fitch made some supportive comments about Greece, but issued a ratings warning for Portugal.  S&P is keeping a negative outlook for the US banking industry.  Small business confidence fell last month, but chain store sales rose last week.  Manpower released the results of an employment survey that was upbeat on new high for Q2; this would be especially good news for the economy.  There are no economic releases today.  Tomorrow morning we get a report from the USDA on grain stocks and a new estimate of the 2009 corn and bean crops.  Traders will probably focus on this tomorrow morning then look ahead to the 2010 acreage intentions report due at the end of the month.  It’s the one year anniversary of the low in the stock market, and there are lots of breakout setups today.  Will that overcome the lack of market moving news?  Read more... (707 words, estimated 2:50 mins reading time)

There wasn’t much news overnight, and the beginning of the week will be light on economic releases.  There were lots of Chinese officials speaking last night, but not necessarily much to trade off today.  PBOC Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said that the Yuan / Dollar peg is a temporary measure in response to the economic crisis, but gave no timetable for change.  PBOC Vice Gov. Su Ning reiterated this, saying that a one time change of the peg wouldn’t solve imbalances.  He also made comments about concerns over debt issued by local governments.  He also said that the central bank’s effort to cool the property market worked, and that there was no need for further measures.  No new news on the Greece front; debt spreads between Germany and the PIIGs are coming in this morning.  On Wednesday morning we get a report from the USDA about the size of last years corn and bean crops.  They resurveyed the northern states that had harvest delays last fall.  Could be interesting.  Read more... (676 words, estimated 2:42 mins reading time)

Chinese stocks were down ~2.5% on thoughts they will move to curb lending in order to cool their economy. Premier Wen Jiabao who said that China’s growth path is “unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”  The ECB and the BOE both left rates unchanged, as expected.  The BOE left the size of its QE unchanged; there had been talk they would expand it.  Greece announced both a larger austerity plan and plans to issue €5 bln. in 10 year notes – an interesting combination.  In the US, jobless claims fell, in line with expectations.  Continuing claims showed a larger than expected drop.  Later today we get the Pending Home Sales Index at 9 AM, then money supply (remember that?) at 3:30.  After the discount rate hike announced at money supply time a few weeks ago, I’ll keep one eye on the newswire when money supply comes out.  Tomorrow morning is the big one – the February Employment Situation report at 7:30 Friday morning.  Given the snowstorms in Feb, it will be interesting to see what we get, and to see how all the smart guys parse the report.  Read more... (562 words, estimated 2:15 mins reading time)

The ADP employment report showed a drop of 20K in payrolls; a bit better than the -50K forecast.  There was some good employment news from Japan, a good GDP report from Australia, and bullish economic comments from a PBOC official.  At the same time, S&P warned that Asian policy makers risk more asset bubbles and inflation if they keep rates low for ‘too long’.  Greece announced a new austerity plan after the EU said they need to tighten their belts further before aid would be considered.  Still, hope springs eternal for a bailout for Greece, and this hope is pressuring the Dollar while boosting risk assets.  There’s lots of news later today:  the ISM Services report is out at 9 AM (exp. +0.5% to 51.0), the EIA report on crude inventories (exp crude +1.0 mln, Gas +700K, Distillates -700K) and the Beige Book at 1 PM.  Read more... (681 words, estimated 2:43 mins reading time)

There was talk about a new Greek austerity plan to be announced next week.  In addition, PMs Merkel and Papandreou will meet on March 5th; there are hopes that a bailout will come out of all this.  These hopes brought back the Euro and put pressure on the USD.  All the other moves flow from that. There are no economic releases out today.  The API inventory numbers are out today; the ADP employment report and ISM Services Index are out tomorrow.  Read more... (562 words, estimated 2:15 mins reading time)

Stocks are a bit higher on a story that the EU is piecing together a bailout plan for Greece.  This would take some of the strain off the EU economy in the short run.  China’s PMI fell in January, while it rose in the EZ.  The Pound has tanked this morning on worries that the UK sovereign debt rating will be cut.  The US ISM report is out at 9 AM; it is expected to have fallen to 57.4 from 58.5 in January.  Read more... (510 words, estimated 2:02 mins reading time)

Asian stocks were higher overnight; they were helped by an upbeat budget and economic report in India. Elsewhere, there was a rumor that Deutsche Bank CEO Ackermann was meeting with Greek officials to discuss a €15 Bln. loan to ease pressure on Greece.  DB denied the rumor.  US Q4 GDP showed a higher than expected revision.  Later this morning we get the Chicago PMI at 8:45, Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 and existing home sales at 9 AM.  Lots of news to chew on for the last trading day of the month.  There’s yet another big snowstorm out East; will it slow trading>  Read more... (448 words, estimated 1:48 mins reading time)