June SP:  Sell Short day; yesterday it made a double top at 1143.  There is an up trend line at 1138.75 that’s being broken this morning, and 1135 is the first downside target.
June NASDAQ:  Another Sell Short day; yesterday’s high was 1918.75.  The trend line comes in at 1904 here, and 1900 is support
June Dow: Breakout setup (ID / NR4 and doji).  Use yesterday’s high and low as the breakout reference points.
June T Bonds:  It’s hard to get a handle on where we are in the Taylor cycle.  It is bearish under the 116-09 Fib retracement level.
June Yen:  I’ll be watching yesterday’s low at 1.1016 as the reference price for a potential Buy day.
June Euro:  Sell day, yesterday’s high at 1.3678 is the reference price / target.
June British Pound:  Buy day, the breakout day means no low test.  1.5034 is the first resistance.
June Canadian Dollar:  A doji yesterday after it made a double top (the old high was 9776).  Look for a directional move today; 9776 is the upside breakout point, 9715 is the downside b.o. point.
April Gold:  Today is a ‘cover breakout sales’ day; will we get a Buy day rally?  Yesterday’s low was 1103.10; I also have some support at 1104.70.
May Silver:  Buy day; we already had the Buy day violation at 16.94.
May Copper:  Same sort of thing as silver; the 335 area was the reference price.
May Coffee: Yesterday’s ID and doji give today a breakout setup.  Watch yesterday’s high at 133.75 as an upside breakout point.
May Cotton:  Looking for a directional move after yesterday’s doji.  Yesterday’s low was 79.38, and the 20 day EMA is at 79.41.
April Crude Oil:  Sell Short day; Fib retracement support at 81.60 is the key downside price.
April Natural Gas:  Sell short day after yesterday’s b.o. rally.  4.522 is the key downside price.  We get the weekly inventory report at 9:30.

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The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

March SP:  Still indecisive.  It’s bounded by 1137.60 one the downside (trend line) and 1148.00 (old high).
March NASDAQ:  It’s bullish if it can hold over 1900.
June T Bonds:  Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day that’s turning into a Sell Short day.  116-09 was Fib retracement support; it’s bearish under yesterday’s low of 116-05.
June Yen:  Another ‘exit breakout buys’ day; Monday’s low at 1.1033 is the first downside target.
June Euro:  Buy day; there’s double bottom support around 1.3530.  1.3619 is the first resistance.
June British Pound:  Today could be a buy day, but it’s bearish under Fib support at 1.4987. The next downside target is the 3/1 low at 1.4778.
June Canadian Dollar:  We’ve got another doji going so far today.  There’s support at 9708 (Fib retracement) and 9698 (trend line). Resistance is at yesterday’s high of 9769 and the 1/14 high of 9776.
April Gold:  I’m treating today as a Sell day after yesterday’s late recovery to a doji.  Yesterday’s high was 1125.10; then there’s Fib retracement resistance at 1127.00.
May Silver:  Sell day; Monday’s high at 17.53 is the first resistance.
May Cocoa:  It’s currently testing the 3/3 low at 2780.  By the Taylor cycle today is a Buy day; use 2780 as the reference price.
May Coffee:  Sell Short day; use the 133 area as the reference price.  131.50 is the first downside target.
May Cotton:  Today is a ‘cover breakout sales’ day; will it turn into a Buy day?
April Crude Oil:  2 doji days, and the inventory report is out at 9:30.  Will we get a directional move out of it?  I’ll watch Monday’s high at 82.41 for an upside breakout point and 80.80 down.
April Live Cattle:  We had an NR7 day yesterday; can we get another breakout move after Monday’s moon shot?
April Lean Hogs:  It had three days of bearish action; can we get a Buy day rally today?  73.20 is the first rally objective.
May Soybeans:  They had a big overnight rally out yesterday’s doji, and reached my first upside objective at 953.  The USDA report was judged neutral for beans.
May Bean Oil:  Breakout setup (ID and NR4). Overnight it cleared the breakout point at Monday’s high of 40.56.  I have 40.97 as the next rally target.
May Wheat:  Today is a ‘cover breakout sales’ day; support is at 486-2 (Fib retracement) and 480-6 (low from 2/4). It’s bearish under 492.
May Corn:  Yesterday was the third day with bearish price action; can they turn it around today?  Yesterday’s low at 368-2 is the reference price for a Buy day trade; the 2/19 low at 365 would be the next downside target.This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.

The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

March SP:  Breakout setup (NR7, doji) but it hasn’t really made a move yet.  It is trading under the first downside breakout point at 1135.00.
March NASDAQ:  Another breakout setup after yesterday’s NR7.  Will it fail this close to the last high at 1900?
June T Bonds:  Breakout setup (NR7) and a Buy day.  Yesterday it held Fib retracement support at 116-09.  Rally objectives are 116-30 and 117-05.
June Yen:  Another breakout day rally (NR7 and doji).  1.1154 and 1.1191 are rally objectives.
June Euro:  Good breakout day selloff; a break under Friday’s low of 1.3529 could lead to a retest of last week’s low.
June British Pound:  It’s bearish under 1.5000; I think we could see a retest of last week’s low at 1.4778.
June Canadian Collar:  Breakout setup (NR7 and doji).  It’s under breakout points at yesterday’s low and trend line support of 9709.  Fib support at 9698 is a short term pivot point.
June Australian Dollar:  Breakout setup (NR7 and doji).  Watch trend line support at 8955.
April Gold:  Downside follow through from yesterday’s breakout sale; it broke Fib retracement support at 1117.20 and trend line support at 1115.60.
May Silver:  Following through on yesterday’s Sell Short day break.  Watch support at 16.90.
May Cocoa:  Breakout setup; it’s currently testing the recent low at 2780.
May Sugar:  Follow through from yesterday’s breakout sale; it’s currently testing a series of lows around 2070 from late ’09.  20.45 is important Fib retracement support.
May Cotton:  It’s continuing to hover over Fib support around 81.55; breaking that could take it down to the 78.50 area.
April Crude Oil:  Yesterday’s doji is yielding a directional move down today, and it’s a Sell Short day.  The first downside target is 79.73.
April Live Cattle:  Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; yesterday’s high of 94.42 is the reference price for a Sell Short day.
April Lean Hog:  Good Buy day rally; 73.37 is the first rally objective.
May Soybeans:  An ’exit breakout buys’ day that’s showing Sell Short day action.  Watch trend line support at 939-4.
May Soymeal:  A good looking bearish chart after it couldn’t regain old low resistance at 259.90.  It broke Fib support at 258.10; the recent low at 255.30 is the next downside objective.
May Wheat:  Breakout setup (ID/NR7 and doji); it broke under double bottom support at 492-0 overnight.  486-4 is the first downside target.

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March SP:  Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; will it become a Sell Short day?  Friday’s high at 1138.75 is the SS day reference price.
March NASDAQ:  Same setup as the SP; Friday’s high was 1889.50.
June T Bonds:  Buy day; Friday’s low at 116-16 is the reference price.  116-09 is Fib retracement support.
June Yen:  Buy day today; Friday’s low at 1.1038 is the reference price.  Broken Fib retracement support at 1.1099 is now resistance.
June Euro:  Sell day; regaining resistance at 1.3632 is bullish.  Overhead there’s trend line resistance at 1.3714.
June British Pound:  Sell day; will an inability to clear Fib resistance at 1.5716 halt the rally?
June Canadian Dollar:  2 doji days could give a breakout (directional) move today:
April Gold:  Friday’s inside day could give a breakout move today.  I’m watching breakout points at 1139.00 up and 1129.00 down.
May Silver:  ‘Exit breakout buys’ day; Friday’s high at 1751.5 would be the reference price for a Sell Short day.
May Cocoa:  Exit breakout buys day; the rally stopped at Fib resistance of 2887.  A drop below 2834 could lead to a retest of the lows.
May Sugar:  Breakout setup (ID/NR7).  Friday’s low at 21.63 is the downside breakout point; then there’s support at 21.36 (trend line) and 21.12 (recent low).
May Coffee:  Breakout setup (ID/NR7 and doji), but it’s not moving yet.  Use Friday’s range for breakout points
May Cotton:  Breakout setup; watch the Fib retracement level at 81.54 as the downside breakout point, 82.75 on the upside.
April Crude Oil:  Sell day; watch trend line support at 81.14 on weakness.
April Natural Gas:  Breakout setup = another reason for a selloff.
April Live Cattle:  Still has a breakout signal.
April Lean Hogs:  Today is a cover breakout sales day; there could be more downside if 73.05 doesn’t hold.
May Soybeans:  A breakout day of sorts (ID and doji).  Watch 950 on the upside, 939 on the downside.
May Soymeal:  Could be a Buy day, but I’m not interested unless it regains the old low at 259.90.
May Bean Oil:  Breakout setup; breakout points are 40.51 (the 3/3 high) and the overnight low at 39.82 down.
May Wheat:  May Wheat:  Buy day; holding the (for now) double bottom at 492-0 is the key.
May Corn:  Buy day; Friday’s low at 375-0 is the reference price.

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The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

March SP:  Breakout day; it’s approaching my first profit target at 1132.
March NASDAQ:  Sell day; bullish over the 3/2 high at 1862.25. The first profit target was 1869; 1878 is next.
June T Bonds:  Sell Short day; there’s now a double top at 11802. The 117 area was the first downside target.
June Yen:  Follow through weakness from yesterday’s Sell Short day.  For now it’s trading under Fib retracement support at 1.1099.
June Euro FX:  By the Taylor count it could be a Buy day, but it broke Fib support at 1.3539. That is the reference price.
June British Pound:  Minor breakout setup (NR4); there’s trend line resistance at 1.5096.
June Canadian Dollar:  Breakout setup; use yesterday’s high and low as breakout points
April Gold:  Buy day; there’s resistance at 1136.80.
May Silver:  Breakout setup; use yesterday’s high and low as breakout points.
May Copper:  Buy day; will yesterday’s NR4 be a kicker?  There’s trend line support at 338.50; resistance at 345.70.
May Cocoa:  Breakout setup (2 doji days).  There’s trend line resistance at 28.53; watch the overnight low at 28.18 for the downside breakout point.
May Cotton:  Still coiling up for a breakout move.
April Crude Oil:  Buy day; the 80.80 area is the reference price.  There’s trend line support at 80.41; there’s resistance at Wednesday’s high of 81.23.
April Live Cattle:  Breakout setup; watch the Weds. high at 93.22 as the upside breakout point; yesterday’s low at 92.62 down.
April Lean Hogs:  Breakout setup; use yesterday’s range as breakout points.
May Soybeans:  It’s a ‘cover breakout sales day’; the Fib retracement level of 948-0 has to be regained for it to be a Buy day.
May Soymeal:  Another ‘cover b.o. sales’ day; bearish under the last major low of 259.90.
May Wheat:  Buy day; there’s trend line support at 499.
May Corn:  Buy day.  There’s Fib support at 383; trend line resistance at 386.

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The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

March SP:  Breakout setup (NR7 and doji yesterday).  Will it move today, or wait until tomorrow’s NFP report?
March NASDAQ:  Same setup as the S&P.
June T Bonds:  It should be a Buy day, will we get one?  117-09 is a pivot point today.  117-24 is fist resistance, 116-30 is support.
June Yen:  It’s a Sell Short day; support is at the old high of 1.1288.
June Euro:  Sell short day; it dropped back under the old double top area around 1.3685.  Profit targets are 1.3619 and 1.3584.
June British Pound:  It’s an ‘exit breakout buys’ day, will it turn into a Sell Short day?
June Canadian Dollar:  The last major high was 9776.
April Gold:  Sell Short day; points to watch are the Fib retracement level at 1136.80 then the old high at 1131.50.
May Silver:  Today could be the Sell Short day; the reference price is yesterday’s high of 17.37.
May Sugar:  Buy day<?>. The Taylor cycle is unclear.  I’m watching the 21.88 Fib level at the reference price.
May Cotton:  It has coiled up the past days, breakout setup today.
April Crude Oil:  Sell Short day; the old high at 80.78 is the reference price.
April Natural Gas:  Exit breakout buys / Sell Short day.
April Live Cattle:  Breakout setup (NR7).  The last major high was 93.50.
May Soybeans:  Breakout setup.  Overnight it reached the first downside target at 957-0.
May Wheat:  Exit breakout buys / Sell Short day, 507-0 was the first downside target.
May Corn:  Sell Short day; 382-6 is the first downside target.

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The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

According to the Taylor cycle, yesterday was a Buy day for Crude Oil futures.  I only knew this ex post facto; as Monday wasn’t a clear cut Sell Short day ex post ante.  (Looking back, Monday was a breakout sale, and Buy days often follow breakout sale days.).

In last night’s chart review, crude oil futures showed more clearly that Monday was a Buy day; the close being higher than the open is evidence of the bullish action characteristic of a Buy day.

That brings us to today, the Sell day in the cycle.  According to Taylor, on a Sell day the ‘insiders’ ‘engineer’ follow through strength so they could sell off the contracts they bought on the Buy day.  The usual price target for a Sell day is the high of the previous (Buy) day.

So if you bought yesterday and carried overnight, we’d be looking to sell at yesterday’s high of 80.95 basis April futures.  That’s all well and good, but if you weren’t already long, what would you do?

click to enlarge

That’s where the Power Buy trade comes in.  As was the case yesterday, crude futures closed a ways off the high of the day, as late session profit taking pushed it back down.  On the Sell day, we look for a rally to the Buy day high, so we can look to buy on the Sell day, with the Buy day high as our profit objective. (It’s time like this I think I need a better term than Taylor’s Sell day).

The intraday (10 minute chart for April crude oil futures is below.  As is usually the case, I like to look for trade opportunities on Wednesdays, after the EIA inventory report.  I combined the breakout trade idea with the Power Trade setup for a trade after the report. Before the report, the session high for April crude oil futures was 80.42.  I used this price as an upside breakout point with the Sell day objective of 80.95.

click to enlarge

The first move after the report was a selloff.  That break held at the previous session low of 79.44, and a rally ensued.  The move back through the 804.42 session high occurred about 20 minutes later, and it quickly saw follow through to our 80.95 target.

If you follow the Taylor trading Technique, understanding Taylor’s logic for Sell days can allow you to take advantage of Taylor setups even when you do strictly follow his methodology.

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The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

March SP:  Could have a breakout setup today, NR4 yesterday.  1112.75 is important support.
March NASDAQ:  Sell Short day; watch for report times.
March Dow: It had an NR7 and doji yesterday; will we get a breakout move today?  The 2/22 high at 10434 is the upside reference point.
June T Bonds:  With yesterday’s recovery (doji), I’m viewing today as a Sell day.  117-16 then 117-24 are rally objectives.
June Yen:  Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; the 2/4 high at 1.1288 is the upside reference price.  1.1244 is the first support.
June Euro:  Sell day after yesterday’s big recovery; there’s double top resistance ~1.3685.
June British Pound:  Breakout day (ID/NR4).  Yesterday’s high at 1.4997 was the upside breakout point. Trade or Fade called 1.5075 the first rally objective, trend line resistance at 1.5115 is next.
June Canadian Dollar:  Today is a Sell Short day but there’s no set up for it yet. Yesterday’s high was 9698; the 2/22 high at 9642 is the downside reference price.
June Australian Dollar:  Sell Short day; the overnight high at 8963 made a double top.  Downside objectives are 8857 (yesterday’s low) and 8833 (Fibonacci retracement).
April Gold:  Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; clearing Fib resistance at 1136.80 gives the bulls more life.
May Silver:  As with gold, today is an exit b.o. buys day.  Clearing the 2/3 high at 16.96 was bullish; the next objective is 17.29.
May Sugar:  Will yesterday’s recovery to a doji see follow through strength?  22.82 is resistance; a move back under 21.88 puts the bears back in charge.
May Coffee:  Breakout setup again (ID/NR4).  I’m watching Monday’s high at 133.05 as an upside breakout point, 130.65 down (Fib retracement).
May Cotton:  Buy day; holding support at 81.50 is bullish.  8265 is first resistance, and Monday’s 84.60 high is the rally objective.
April Crude Oil:  Sell day; yesterday’s high at 80.95 is the Sell day objective. Power Buy?
April Natural Gas:  Breakout setup – NR7 and doji.
April Lean Hogs:  Buy day, watch trend line resistance at 73.52.
May Soybeans:  Breakout setup – NR7 and doji yesterday.  I’m watching the 2/24 high at 969-4 for an upside breakout point, the overnight low at 962-0 down.
May Soymeal:  Another breakout setup; this one is more symmetrical.  First breakout points to watch are 269.60 up and 266.10 down.
May Wheat:  Breakout setup; watch yesterday’s range for breakout reference prices.
May Corn:  Yesterday’s doji could give a directional move today.  Watch 384 as an upside breakout point.

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The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

March SP:  The old high at 1112.75 should now be support.  Yesterday was an NR4 day, but with the rally and breakout, I’m not anticipating a big move today.
March NASDAQ:  By the Taylor count today could be a Sell Short day.  If so, yesterday’s high at 1848.50 is the reference price.
March Dow:  Yesterday was an NR7 day; will we get a breakout move today?
June T Bonds:  Breakout day (ID / NR4).  The first breakout point was yesterday’s low at 117-04; Fib support is 116-30 is next.
June Euro:  The 1.3450 area is proving to be good support, and holding over 1.3568 is bullish.
June British Pound:  That was a big beating yesterday, but I wouldn’t be in a hurry to buy it unless it regains 1.4992.
June Canadian Dollar:  By the Taylor count today could be a Sell Short day, but the breakout over the swing high at 9642 negates that for the time being.
April Gold:  Yesterday’s NR7 and doji, give a breakout setup today.  The first breakout point was 1123.90; I have 1126.40 next.  The 2/22 high at 1131.50 is the first rally objective.
May Silver:  Buy day; yesterday’s high at 16.77 is the first rally objective.
May Copper:  Buy day; filled in the gap overnight.  The first rally objective is 338.55 (Fib) to 3238.80 (old swing high).
May Sugar:  Will today turn into a Buy day? Yesterday’s low at 22.02 is the reference price.
April Crude Oil:  Range bound.  Given the recent cycle; I anticipate the strength will continue today. 79.34 is a pivot point today.
April Live Cattle:  Formed a little channel; bounded by 9222 and 9150.  Look for a breakout of either end.
April Lean Hogs:  Yesterday’s NR4 and doji give a breakout setup today.  Use the overnight low at 7260 and yesterday’s high of 7357 as breakout points.
May Soybeans:  It’s tough to get a handle on directional bias today.  There’s support at 955, resistance is around 969.
May Bean Oil:  Yesterday’s NR4 and doji give a breakout setup today.   Breakout points are the 39.50 area down; yesterday’s high of 40.09 up.
May Corn:  Buy day after yesterday’s big selloff.  378-4 is Fib retracement support.

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The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

March SP:  Breakout setup (NR4 and doji). Friday’s high at 1107.75 is the first breakout point; the recent high at 1112.75 is probably more significant.
March NASDAQ:   Breakout setup (NR7), the recent high was 1833.
June T Bonds:  Sell Short day; so far there hasn’t been anything to get excited about.  It is trading around trend line support of 117-15.
June Yen:  Sell short day; the Feb. high at 1.1288 is resistance.
June Euro:  Exit breakout buys / Sell Short day.  The double bottom around 1.3450 is the downside target.
June British Pound:  Friday’s range contraction and doji were a breakout signal of sorts.  1.5267 was Fib retracement support off the weekly chart.
June Canadian Dollar:  Sell day; regaining the 9500 area was bullish.  Tomorrow should be a Sell Short day.
April Gold:  Sell short day.  Friday’s high at 1119.50 was the reference price, and 1110.00 is first support.
May Silver:  Sell Short day; the 2/22 high at 16.595 was the reference price.
May Copper:  Huge volatility because of the Chilean earthquake (Chile produces about 1/3 of the world’s copper).  The 2/22 high at 338.80 is the reference price for a Turtle Soup sale.
May Sugar:  Will it finally get a Buy day rally?  Watch trend lien resistance at 23.89.
May Coffee:  Breakout setup; I’m watching Fib resistance at 132.70 as an upside breakout point.
April Crude Oil:  Friday’s inside day could give a directional move today.  The 2/22 high at 80.78 is the upside price to watch.
May Soybeans: An Oops sale today; breaking back under Fib support at 963-6 added to the downward pressure.  955 is first support.
May Soymeal:  Breakout setup (ID/NR7).  Thursday’s low at 266.20 is the downside breakout point.
May Wheat:  Friday’s big rally makes me think to day will act like a Sell Short day.  The 2/16 high at 523-2 is the reference price.

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The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.