Yesterday afternoon Moody’s cut Ireland’s long term debt rating, citing the cost of propping up their banks. This was offset in part by a rise in the German IFO index; a piece of good news about the European economy. This contrasts with the US Durable Goods report, which was weak and will stoke concerns about a double dip. Later this morning we get July new home sales; will they be as bad as the existing home sales report was? At 9:30 we get the weekly crude inventory report then at Noon are the results of the 5 Yr. T Note auction.
Sept S&P: ROC indicates a Buy day today, but I think it needs to regain 1050 to find its footing, and 1056.00 the second resistance. If it is a Buy day yesterday’s low at 1044.00 would be the reference price. 1040 is next support.
Sept. NASDAQ: Looking for a consolidation day after yesterday’s big range. Yesterday’s low at 1766.00 is the reference price for a Buy day. 1756 is next support
Sept. T Bonds: It’s an exit breakout buys day, will it turn into a Sell Short day? Yesterday’s high at 136-01 would be the reference price for a Sell Short day, and there’s trend line resistance at 136-14.
Sept. Yen: Sell Short day, a move below the 8/11 high at 1.1805 could lead to a selloff.
Sept. Euro: Sell day; it’s bound by old double bottom resistance at 1.2730 on the upside and important Fib retracement support at 1.2630 on the downside.
Sept. British Pound: Buy day; it needs to regain 1.5440 to get a rally going.
Sept. Canadian Dollar: It’s due for a Buy day rally, needs to hold double bottom support around 9360.
Dec. Gold: That was quite a flush yesterday. Today is an exit breakout buys day; it needs to clear the 8/19 high at 1239.50 to keep the rally going.
Sept. Silver: Another exit breakout buys day, the 8/4 high at 18.70 is the key to further advance.
Sept. Copper: What is the “commodity with a PhD in Economics” saying about the economy? It’s a cover breakout sales day; watch important Fib retracement support at 316.77.
Oct. Sugar: Holding the old high at 19.88 will be the key to keeping an aggressive rally going.
Dec. Cotton: Is it topping out in here? An inability to push over the 8/13 high at 85.71 will likely bring in selling and signal a top.
Oct. Crude Oil: It’s Wednesday, that means inventory day. Held trade below the July low at 72.15 is bearish; the June low at 70.35 would be the next downside target. Yesterday’s low at 71.32 would be the reference price for a Buy day, but it really needs to regain the 72.15 level to go anywhere on the upside.
Nov. Soybeans: Buy day, be careful with the long side. The 1005 to 1006 area is key resistance.
Dec. Wheat: Buy day. It’s bullish over 705; 716 is first resistance.
Dec. Corn: Buy day, regaining 422 would help a rally, with 426-4 the next objective. Don’t get married to the long side; it looks like it’s turning over.
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