Greek debt talks continue, no results, but there’s more contention from some key players. The IMF wants the ECB to take a haircut on its Greek holding, but the central bank is not keen to do that; the IIF negotiator also thinks the ECB should play along. January’s reading of the German IFO index of economic conditions rose by more than expected, while the Q4 GDP for the UK was weaker than expected. Staying in Europe, the Davos confab is up and running so there’s some potential for headline risk. In the US, a blowout earnings report for Apple kicked things off last night although the effects were basically limited to the NASDAQ. We get the weekly EIA crude oil inventory report at 9:30 AM and the results of a 5 Year T Note auction at 10:30 AM. Auction results are out early because of the FOMC meeting. The statement is due at 11:30 AM, the Fed’s economic projections at 1 PM and Bernanke’s testimony at 1:15 PM. In spite of all the time and attention to be spent on the FOMC meeting I don’t really expect any surprises from it. The big question may be how long the Fed plans to keep the Fed Funds rate low. Grain markets saw strength on bullish South American weather and concerns about Russia’s supplies of corn and wheat.
March eMini S&P Futures: Another doji day yesterday; will it pay off in a directional move today? Maybe after the FOMC rigmarole, although I don’t expect anything exciting out of it. Watch 1309.00 as a pivot point this morning; I would look to short under yesterday’s low at 1301.50.
March eMini NASDAQ Futures: Yesterday’s doji gave a breakout setup for today’s session. Watch Monday’s high at 2452.25 as a pivot point for the rally. The 2444 area is support.
March T Bonds: Breakout setup (ID, NR7). Upside breakout points are 141-25 and 141-27. There are also breakout setups in the 5 and 10 year T Notes; they may offer lower volatility / less risk.
Currency Futures: It’s slim pickings for setups this morning. I expect a lot of traders will not want to do much before the FOMC meeting announcement; I think it might be best to wait to look for trades after that.
March British Pound: Sell Short day. Yesterday’s high at 1.5624 is the reference price; I’d also consider selling a break of today’s session low of 1.5525.
Feb. Gold: It’s on a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day signal but so far the action is bearish – wait for bullish momentum to buy. There’s Fibonacci retracement support at 1663.80.
March Capital: Breakout setup. Yesterday’s low at 3185.5 was the first downside breakout point with 3153 the first downside target. On the upside watch today’s session open at 3205.
March Sugar: Still has a breakout setup. For a downside breakout point watch today’s low at 24.50; on the upside I’d start with 24.78.
March Coffee: Sell day so it can rally. With yesterday’s doji and range contraction I’d consider buying a break of today’s high at 221.20; looking for a breakout rally.
March Crude Oil: By the TTT today is a Sell Short day but it’s trading low in the recent range. On the downside watch trend line support at 97.80 and then Monday’s low at 97.40.
April Live Cattle: It’s a TTT Sell Short day and it’s approaching the contract high at 129.75 – watch that for a potential SS day reference price.
April Lean Hogs: TTT Buy day, watch either yesterday’s low at 87.82 or 88.50 on the upside. Holding 87.50 support is key for the bulls.
March Soybeans: Sell Short day. It’s a long way back up to yesterday’s high. There was trend line support at the overnight low of 1215-6; I’d consider selling a break of that as well.
March Wheat: It’s an ‘exit breakout buys’ day, watch yesterday’s high at 638-0 as the reference price for a potential Sell Short day move. The 630 area is a directional pivot point.
March Corn: Another exit b.o. buys / SS day; watch yesterday’s high at 636-0 as the reference price.
March Soymeal: It’s at an interesting decision point – the last high was 324.50; watch that as a directional pivot point this morning.
March Bean Oil: Breakout setup; watch yesterday’s high at 51.59 and low at 51.00 as the breakout reference prices.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
