The Saudi “Day of Rage” appears to be relatively quiet; there’s no big demonstrations reported. The Japanese earthquake is (obviously) the big overnight news. The earthquake measured 8.9on the Richter scale; fortunately it occurred in Northern Japan, relatively far from the more densely populated South. Besides the local devastation in Japan there are fears of tsunamis for much of the Pacific. In the U.S. the waves are expected to hit the West Coast between 9:10 to 9:25 AM CT. The major effects from this will likely be in slower growth and repatriation to Japan for rebuilding. In U.S. news, February retail sales came in stronger than expected. At 8:55 AM CT we get the final consumer sentiment survey for March; it is expected to have fallen 1.0 to 76.5. Traders should be careful today as the full effects of the earthquake may not yet be fully felt.
June eMini S&P Futures: I still anticipate a Buy day, but traders should be careful of potential external shocks (Saudi protests, tsunamis / developments from the Japanese earthquake). Yesterday’s low (and double bottom) at 1287.75 is the reference price; 1295.50 is the first upside objective.
June eMini NASDAQ Futures: Buy day, reference prices are yesterday’s low at 2273 and the 2/24 low at 2278.50. There’s trend line resistance at the overnight high of 2288.
June T Bonds: Sell Short day, yesterday’s high (and double top) at 120-27 is the reference price. The first downside target is 119-29.
June Yen: 1.2141 is the pivot point for holding the rally.
June Euro: it’s a ‘cover breakout sales’ day, yesterday’s low at 1.3756 is the reference price for a Buy day. 1.3712 is significant Fibonacci retracement support.
June Swiss Franc: Breakout setup (ID, range contraction) yesterday. For an upside breakout point I’m first watching a trend line at 1.0774, on the downside watch Wednesday’s low at 1.0680.
June Canadian Dollar: It’s on a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day signal; yesterday’s low at 1.0216 is the reference price.
April Gold: Momentum is bullish but the close relatively high above the close takes some of the impetus. For now it’s bullish over 1412.
May Silver: Buy day, yesterday’s low at 34.66 is the reference price. 3422 is Fibonacci retracement support.
April Crude Oil: It’s a ‘cover breakout sales’ day, breaking under Fibonacci retracement support at 100.92 is keeping the pressure on. Yesterday’s low at 100.62 is the reference price for a TTT Buy day.
April Natural Gas: Buy day, holding over a Fib level at 3.847 helps the bulls. 3.871 is the next resistance.
April Live Cattle: Held trade under the Jan. 18 high at 116.60 could lead to downside follow through. The Feb. 2 high at 115.85 is the next downside target; there’s also Fib retracement support there.
Grains: The Japanese earthquake threw the recovery into disarray for the time being. I’m still interested in the long side, but the situation is still fluid (pun intended) here for the time being. I would recommend trading very carefully in grains this morning given the big ranges last night.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
