Overnight there was a lot of data showing that the Chinese economy is running hot – high inflation and retail sales. PBOC Governor Zhou and a representative from the Ministry of Commerce both said that inflation will not be a problem this yes. What do they know that we don’t? It was also reported that China refined oil at a record pace in February. In Europe, a general strike has shut down Greece; the 2 year Greek / German and Portugal /Germany spreads were a bit narrower. In US news, jobless claims came in higher than expected, while the January trade balance showed a drop in the deficit as both exports and imports contracted. Stock indices roll to June today. The prospect of higher interest rates in China is likely weighing on equities and commodities.
June SP: Sell Short day; yesterday it made a double top at 1143. There is an up trend line at 1138.75 that’s being broken this morning, and 1135 is the first downside target.
June NASDAQ: Another Sell Short day; yesterday’s high was 1918.75. The trend line comes in at 1904 here, and 1900 is support
June Dow: Breakout setup (ID / NR4 and doji). Use yesterday’s high and low as the breakout reference points.
June T Bonds: It’s hard to get a handle on where we are in the Taylor cycle. It is bearish under the 116-09 Fib retracement level.
June Yen: I’ll be watching yesterday’s low at 1.1016 as the reference price for a potential Buy day.
June Euro: Sell day, yesterday’s high at 1.3678 is the reference price / target.
June British Pound: Buy day, the breakout day means no low test. 1.5034 is the first resistance.
June Canadian Dollar: A doji yesterday after it made a double top (the old high was 9776). Look for a directional move today; 9776 is the upside breakout point, 9715 is the downside b.o. point.
April Gold: Today is a ‘cover breakout sales’ day; will we get a Buy day rally? Yesterday’s low was 1103.10; I also have some support at 1104.70.
May Silver: Buy day; we already had the Buy day violation at 16.94.
May Copper: Same sort of thing as silver; the 335 area was the reference price.
May Coffee: Yesterday’s ID and doji give today a breakout setup. Watch yesterday’s high at 133.75 as an upside breakout point.
May Cotton: Looking for a directional move after yesterday’s doji. Yesterday’s low was 79.38, and the 20 day EMA is at 79.41.
April Crude Oil: Sell Short day; Fib retracement support at 81.60 is the key downside price.
April Natural Gas: Sell short day after yesterday’s b.o. rally. 4.522 is the key downside price. We get the weekly inventory report at 9:30.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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