Over the weekend an agreement was reached for a new bailout for Cyprus. Large uninsured depositors face losing up to 40% losses on their holdings. Russian press reports in retaliation for the Cyprus deal (Russians stand to take big losses from the bailout haircut) the Russian government is going to freeze some German corporate accounts in Russia. Among Cypriot lawmakers there is also some talk of leaving the Euro. There is no economic data due today so any new Cyprus developments will likely be the market focus today. The strong USD is pressuring some commodity prices; grains are seeing profit taking ahead of Thursday’s plantings intentions report.
June eMini S&P Futures: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell day and it closed at the top of the range on Friday so follow though rally was anticipated. At this point I’m watching the last two swing highs of 1555.75 and 1558.75 as reference prices; we might look for a selloff if it holds under those levels. I would also look to get long if it holds over the highs; the daily trend is up.
June Euro FX: Today was an “exit breakout buys’ day so the Sell Short day move was anticipated-this was a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” move. Friday’s high of 1.3019 is the SS day reference price. 1.2973 is a downside pivot point and the next downside target is trend line support at 1.2912.
June British Pound: Sell Short day; I’m watching the 15 March swing high at 1.5168 as a downside pivot point.
June Canadian Dollar: Sell day; watch last Thursday’s high of 9787 and the 15 March high of 9802 as reference prices for continuing / holding the rally.
June Australian Dollar: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). Friday’s high of 1.0392 is the first upside breakout reference price; there aren’t any nearby objectives / resistance for a rally. Trade or Fade has its upside breakout point at 1.0414 and the first objective is 1.0444.
April Gold: Friday was an NR4 day; overnight they really pulled the rug out from under it when it broke the 1600 level. 1588.50 is Fibonacci retracement support; I’d be surprised if there’s enough interest to push it below there but I would be very interested in buying it until it can regain 1600.
May Copper: There’s a breakout setup (ID, NR4); I’m looking for downside confirmation for a short sale. I’d look at the overnight low of 3.4505 (play this entry closely) and Fibonacci retracement support at 3.4415.
May Cocoa: Friday was an inside day; sell a break of Friday’s low of 2149. 2131 is the first downside target.
May Sugar: Friday was an inside day; watch last Thursday’s low of 18.13 as a downside pivot point- sell a break of the session low of 18.08. Regaining last week’s swing low at 18.24 might be worth a buy for a bounce.
May Crude Oil: Sell day; watch last week’s swing high at 94.47 as a pivot point today. There’s also a longer term Fib retracement level at 94.44 so it’s in a significant area here.
May Natural Gas: Friday was an inside day and it was the third consecutive doji day-will there be a directional move today? For upside reference prices start with trend line resistance at 4.058; the last is Thursday’s high of 4.082.
May Soybeans: Friday was an ID, NR7 day; will there be a breakout move today? I’d be short under Friday’s low of 1433; the next point is a Fib retracement level at 1427-2. On the upside start with the last overnight high at 1436-4.
May Corn: It has a TTT Buy day signal but it closed far enough above Friday’s high that it make it difficult to find a setup. Be careful if it breaks under 720.
May Soymeal: Friday was an inside day; that makes Friday’s low of 416.80 important either way- a downside breakout or a Buy day.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice.
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