Housing starts for October fell 10.6%. It was a lot weaker than expected, but not entirely bearish. A lower rate of starts will help bring down the inventory overhang. CPI was higher than expected; much of the rise can be attributed to the cash for clunkers program, which distorted car prices. Last night’s API report showed a huge drop in inventories last week; this was an effect of tropical storm Ida. Overnight, an advisor to the PBOC said that China faces the risk of property and asset bubbles and they need to address that risk. The housing starts number pressured the Dollar and equities. The DOE crude inventory report is out at 9:30. There’s still a lot of liquidity chasing momentum.
Dec. S&P: They’re on an ID / NR7 breakout setup; the upside breakout point is Monday’s high at 11225
Dec. NASDAQ: Another breakout setup; watch the last two day’s highs at 1811.75 and 1813.75. Watch 1803.25 on the downside.
Dec. T Bonds: On a sell short signal; watch yesterday’s high of 121-07. 120-18 is first support.
Dec. Yen: an NR4 and a doji yesterday. Support is at the low high of 1.1183; first resistance is 1.1231.
Dec. EuroFX: Rallying on a buy day. There’s trend line resistance at 1.4993.
Dec. British Pound: An inside day and a doji yesterday; 1.6844 is the first upside breakout point; watch 1.6737 down.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: It’s on an ROC Pinball buy, but it sure looks like there won’t be a Taylor Buy day violation of the previous day low. Resistance is 9583.
Dec. Gold: There’s an ID/NR4 and doji breakout setup; it has already cleared the breakout point at Monday’s high of 1144.20. The Trade or Fade rally objective is 1160.20.
Dec. Silver: Another breakout setup (ID/NR7 and a doji). It’s hard to find rally objectives up here; I expect 19.00 to be a big objective (round number).
March Sugar: A good breakout day rally; there’s trend line resistance at 23.44.
March Coffee: A good breakout day rally. 139.05 was Fib retracement resistance; 141.58 is the first rally objective.
March Cotton: Breakout day rally; it’s over the breakout point at 72.77. The fall high at 74.27 is the next rally objective.
Jan. Crude Oil: It’s on a breakout signal today (inventory report day!). There’s trend line resistance at 80.77. There’s also a Taylor sell short signal; yesterday’s high was 80.33.
Feb Live Cattle: It’s an exit breakout buys (and sell short day today). Note the high violation overnight-a good chance to short. 85.15 is the first downside objective.
Feb. Lean Hogs: Also an “exit breakout buys day; resistance is the swing high at 65.00.
Jan Soybeans: The rally rolls on; clearing the Oct high at 1029-2 gave the bulls more fuel, and is swamping the Taylor cycle. I have resistance at 1051-6.
Jan Soymeal: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day; clearing the Nov. high at 304.30 is bullish.
Jan. Bean Oil: There’s an NR7 and doji breakout setup today.
March Wheat: It’s supposed to be a Taylor sell short day but the move over the old Oct. high at 593-0 is bullish. I’ll key off yesterday’s 597-0 high for the sell short signal.
March Corn: There’s an NR7 and doji breakout setup today; yesterday’s high at 419-4 is the first upside breakout point, with 424-4 the next upside point of note. On the downside there’s trend line support of 415-4.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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