I wrote a bullish post about stocks this weekend; let’s revisit them to see what changed.
The original post is here.
Stocks- Failed rally yesterday, more downside today?
NQH- 1199 support
USH- Bottoming?
JYH- Downside break of trendline
ECH- No reaction to ECB meeting?
BPH- There it goes-14644 is next objective
CDH- Still looking for a breakout
GCJ- Rally on a breakout mode day, 931.30 was last swing high
SVH- Breakout over last swing high of 1266
COH- Rallying on a breakout mode day
SBH- 1250 is still support. Looks like a breakout day.
CH- 358-6 is still key level.
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SPH- Good day for the bulls, 850 is resistance. Tomorrow will be a sell short day.
NQH- It’s the ‘90s all over again-tech is in! 124475 was the last swing high.
USH- Messed around on both sides of the 12609 support area.
JYH- Testing trendline support around 11140.
BPH- Testing resistance at 14536. A close over there would be bullish.
GCJ- Bullish, has to clear 911 resistance
CCH- Bearish MACD crossover coming?
SBH- Still watching the 1250 support area, still like the short side.
KCH- The break I was looking for came today instead of yesterday. 11475 is next downside target.
CTH- Still watching the 4869 support level.
LCJ- Dead day today=Breakout day tomorrow
WH- Downside breakout under 548-2 low.
CH- Trading around the 358-6 swing low.
USH- Looks like the reversal action from last week Tues/Weds (1/27-1/28). Watch the 12609.0 low of the move.
ECH- 13008 is Fib retracement resistance, tomorrow will be a momentum sell short day.
SFH- Good breakout rally; the best of the money from this trade is probably made.
GCJ- 892.20 is old high support
SVH- 1208 is trendline support
SBH- 1268 is old high support; 1250 would be next support
KCH- I tried selling, it bounced off 118.05 Fib support. Keep watching for a short.
CTH- Looking bearish; I’d like to sell a break under yesterday’s low.
LHJ- Oops buy setup today, will it followthrough?
WH- Inside day, looking for a breakout down
March sugar spent much of November basing, forming a channel between (roughly) 970 and 990, and had recently made a double top around 997. Friday was a doji bar, and with a bullish MACD crossover, things may be looking sweet for sugar (sorry about the terrible pun).
First resistance is a 50% retracement level at 1007, next objectives are the November high at 1020 then the October high of 1050.
S+Ps had a breakout setup today-a narrow range and a doji bar on Friday. Today I am looking for a directional move out of that setup. This is a bit of an anomaly ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, as you might expect traders to be trading cautiously ahead of such an important event, but the fact that the market is rallying in spite of this (and in spite of the $10 bln. writeoff announced by UBS) is telling for the Santa Claus rally. Fed Funds futures are currently pricing in a 76% chance of a 25 bp cut tomorrow, the remainder on a 50 bp cut.
Lots of volatility yesterday means a thin slate today:
Stocks-A range contraction could lead to another directional move today.
Dec Bonds-A doji and a relatively narrow range yesterday should give a breakout setup today
Dec Hogs-Looks like another breakout setup, or nobody has cared about the hog market for the past week or so.
Slim pickings after Friday’s nearly across the board volatility:
Australian Dollar-already did breakout down Sunday night.
December Copper-Again, broke sharply in overnight activity
December Gasoline-A strong breakout under the recent 214 low
January Soybeans.
For more information on how to recognize and trade breakouts,go to the Trade or Fade homepage-see the link on the right, under “My Sites”
Markets I’m watching for breakouts:
Stock Indices-ESZ7, DJZ7, ERZ7
CDZ7-Canadian Dollar
SVZ7
WZ7, KWZ7-Wheat, both Chicago and KC.
See the Trade or Fade web site for how to trade breakouts:
December Cotton was a breakout candidate today-yesterday had a narrow trading range, and although it wasn’t an inside day (I like the ID/NR combination as a breakout signal), it was a doji, so I knew to be looking for a breakout trade on Wednesday. The chart below is of the day session only-you don’t have to stay up at night to catch every breakout!) That being said, more and more breakouts are occurring in the overnights markets.)