The bull market in precious metals paused yesterday; this correction was a good chance to buy silver.The green line in the chart below is the swing high from September 25th. 1393 has served as support for the past sessions; yesterday’s move below there proved to be merely corrective. Momentum (the bottom panel of the chart) dropped to the zero level for the first time in six sessions, giving a buy signal. I was looking to buy as it dropped below, then moved back over 1393. Stops could have been placed below the intraday low at 13.85. The first profit target for the buy was yesterday’s high of 14.37, further targets are 1487 (50% retracement of the March to Nov. ‘08 decline) then a psychological target of 15.00. Near term, momentum is still low enough for the market to rally. The longer term charts look bullish as well; the May low at 1638.5 is a major target.
Posts Tagged ‘futures’
Good Buy Opportunity for Silver Futures
Friday, February 20th, 2009
Taking a Loss, Pt. 2
Sunday, February 8th, 2009I’m a futures broker. It’s been my business for the past 22 years, and in the course of my career, I’ve worked with hundreds of traders, from complete novices to traders with more experience than I. Some of the most valuable lessons I’ve learned have been about money management.
Soybean Trade Analysis and Recap
Monday, February 2nd, 2009I’ve been watching the soybeans for a short sale the past couple of days; we had a good trade in them today.
Today’s T Bond Trade
Wednesday, January 28th, 2009I had a few people ask about today’s T Bond trade, so I thought I’d write up a post mortem to give some insight into my thought process.
Below is a daily chart for the March Bonds. Today was a momentum sell short day. The bottom panel of this chart is the two period momentum I use for this. Yesterday’s rally pushed momentum above the zero line, which it hadn’t seen for days. This push meant we should be looking for a reversal in momentum and price today. In addition, yesterday the market closed at the very top of the range, another indication that we should be looking for a potential reversal in direction today.
Midsession Comments for 1/28
Wednesday, January 28th, 2009
SPH: Holding near the session highs. 865.75 was a high from last week. Watch for the FOMC announcement at 1 PM.
NQH: Really took off this morning. 1228 is next resistance. Bullish MACD crossover coming.
ZBH: It’s a momentum sell short day today; the tight range and doji are probably lining up for a move after the FOMC.
BPH: 14424 is Fib resistance, it’s also the area of a downtrend line off this month’s swing highs.
CDH: Big rally from an ID/NR setup; 8258 is Fib resistance.
GCJ: Downside move from an ID/NR setup; the held trade under 892 indicates more downside. There’s trendline support at 884, a move under there could target 870.
SVH: Hasn’t followed gold down, can it hold together? There’s support at the old high of 1177.
CCH: Reached the objective at the last swing high of 2806, might be a good time to book profits if you bought the breakout.
SBH: Relatively narrow range today. Trendline support at 1268. Tomorrow will be a momentum buy day.
CLH: Momentum is bullish; 3911 was the last swing low.
Futures Watch List for 1/27
Tuesday, January 27th, 2009TYH- 12309 double bottom
DXH- 8431 is 40 day MA support, MACD has turned down, tested trendline support this AM.
CDH- 8177 is 50% retracement resistance, 8100 is support
GCJ-Quiet session so far, 892 support. Looking to buy.
SVH-1177 support. Looking to buy.
COH-Bullish, watch 2718 double top. 2806 upside objective
Sugar-1315 resistance. 1268, 1252 support
CLH-Failed yesterday at 4693 Fib resistance, 4385 support today. If crude prices are an indicator of the economy, what’s it telling us?
LCJ-Good sell short day yesterday, 8557 support.
SH-big range and a doji yesterday, 1037 resistance/997 support
CH-Couldn’t clear 402 resistance yesterday, last night’s session closed on trendline support.
Futures Watch List for 1/26
Monday, January 26th, 2009SPH: Doji Friday, breaking trendline resistance. 840.88 is Fib resistance
JYH: Doji Friday, trendline support at 11178
ECH: Bottoming? Breaking trendline resistance; MACD ready for a bullish crossover
GCJ: Look to buy, 892 support
SVH: 1177 support.
HGH: Time for it to catch up to other metals? 155 .50 trendline resistance
COH: 2718 was last swing high.
SBH: 1315 is Fib resistance/objective
KCH: 11950 was last swing high
CTH: Holding over last swing high of 5090.
CLH: 4693 is Fib retracement resistance
SH: 1037 was last swing high
WH: 597-2 is Fib retracement resistance. MACD ready for a bullish crossover?
KWH: 624-6 is Fib resistznce. Ditto on MACD
CH: Trading at trendline resistance, bullish MACD crossover coming
BOH: Little triangle formed, look for a breakout
Copper and the Economy?
Wednesday, January 21st, 2009If copper is still considered a “tell” for the economy, worries are growing. Note that the 146 area has been a “pivot”, that is, is has served a both support and resistance for the past months. Yesterday’s rally and failure to take out the top trend line of the pennant was a bearish sign, and today it broke under the lower line of the pennant, taking out the 146 support level in the process. A 50% retracement of the rally from the December low to this month’s high is at 143.88, and a breach of that could extend the selloff. I’m looking for an opportunity to get shor.
Swing Trader’s Insight-Today’s Canadian Dollar Trade
Wednesday, January 14th, 2009I tried selling the Canadian dollar yesterday. MACD showed an incipient bearish crossover, and I was looking for followthrough selling when the red trendline was broken. Yesterday’s selloff ran out of gas, and reversed back up, stopping me out for a small loss. With the bearish MACD crossover in place, I was still looking for a short sale today. The initial sale point was at yesterday’s low of 8096, but I didn’t have an order working to sell there. It quickly dropped down to make a new intraday low at 8077, and I placed the order to sell at 8075, on a break to a new low. I got stopped in, and they dropped to a new low at 8032. The short term pattern turned sideways, and I lowered the stop to lock in a profit. Following the release of the DOE crude inventory report it appeared that many physical commodities were attempting to bottom, so I covered at 8040. I will look for another opportunity to short this market-maybe on a rebound back toward 8100.
Today’s Yen Trade
Wednesday, November 12th, 2008Although the Veteran’s Day holiday yesterday made me cautious about narrow range, doji bar yesterday, it gave a “trade” day, breakout setup today. See the Trade or Fade report below-it was a doji, the narrowest bar of the previous four days, and was nearly half the size of Monday’s.
Given the Yen’s positive correlation with equity markets (see yesterday’s post, The Forex Tell?), the Yen has been a good proxy trade for equities. Below is a 5 minute intraday chart for December Yen futures, with the Trade or Fade levels shown. After spending a quiet night last night, the Yen saw a rapid advance this morning as stocks sank. The long entry trigger was at 8:00 AM at 10331, the first profit target was at 10412, hit at 9:30. R-3, the final profit target was hit at 10:05, for a profit of $2362.50.