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There are no economic releases of consequence today. Stocks are supported by hopes the banking sector will stabilize-the WSJ is reporting that the US government will increase its control of Citigroup.
CPI was a non event. Negative sentiment continues, with the Dow futures taking out their November low.
March SP: Momentum is still bearish, 766 is support.
March NASDAQ: I came in short from yesterday. 1153.50 was the last swing low.
March Dow Jones: Broke the November low at 7398.
March Treasury Bonds: Momentum buy day, 12808 is resistance.
March Dollar Index: Momentum buy day, 8857 and 8870 are resistance.
March Japanese Yen: 10567 was the last swing low.
March EuroFX: 12540 is support.
March Canadian Dollar: 7888 was the last low for the Loonie.
April Gold: Good rally on a breakout day, 1000 is resistance.
March Copper: 140 is support.
May Sugar: 1290 is support.
May coffee: Breakout setup; 11105 is the downside breakout point.
Economic numbers were bearish-PPI and claims both were higher that expected. It’s hard to believe in higher prices in this economy, but maybe there were New Year’s price hikes. The Germans are holding a press conference at 10:15 Central to discuss their economic plans.
Stocks and Treasuries are both higher-stocks bouncing from yesterday’s losses, Treasuries because the Chinese reiterated that they will continue to buy Treasuries provided they maintain liquidity and preservation of value. Housing starts were weaker than expected; this may be good news as it will help draw down inventory.
Markets are lower over concerns about European banking. Europe’s banks have huge exposure to Eastern Europe, among other things, and some of the former Soviet Bloc countries are basket cases. German economic sentiment showed a huge jump for January. What do they see that I don’t?
An appetite for risk seems to be returning today- the “English Speaking” currencies are all higher, and safe havens (gold, Treasuries) are lower. Euro zone GDP fell by 1.5% in Q4. This was the largest decline since they began keeping records in 1995. The U. of Mich. Consumer Confidence report is out at 9 AM, it’s supposed to show a small decline. The cash Treasury market is closing at Noon for President’s Day.
January’s retail sales were better than expected, December’s retail sales decline was revised downward. Continuing claims hit a record.
SPH; Looks bearish. 81950, 81650 are support.
NQH: Looks bearish, 1210 support.
DJH: 7800 support.
USH: Watch 12809 support.
JYH: Bullish, 11158 resistance
BPH: Bearish under 142.
SBH: 1307 is key support.
CTH: 4550 is key support.
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SPH- Momentum buy day, 843 upside objective
NQH- Momentum buy day, 1245 resistance
USH- Sell short day, 12810 is fib resistance
JYH- Sell short day.
CDH- Momentum buy day
GCJ- 931.30 was last swing high
SVH- 1318 is now support
HGH- 15270 pivot point today-Fib retracement
COH- Momentum buy day, 2685 support
SBH- Momentum buy day, 1307 support
KCH- Momentum buy day
CTH- 4550 downside objective
SH- 976-6 is key support
BOH- Momentum buy day, 3330 support.
SPH: Doji, breakout mode. Clearing 873/876 double top would be big.
NQH: Ditto on the formation, double top around 1287.
USH: Rallying on a breakout mode day, looking to buy. 12627 is a potential breakout point, 12717 is first upside objective.
BPH: Momentum sell short day.
GCJ: Momentum buy day, held 892 support. 909.50 is resistance.
SVH: 1318 was the high for this move, momentum is bullish.
COH: momentum buy day, 2770 is trendline support.
Grains: I like the long side of soybeans and meal, but haven’t looked at the USDA reports to see what effect that will have.
The day’s delay in the financial rescue plan is being blamed for the weakness in stocks and the dollar today. I’d say it’s just some correction to a huge rally Friday. It’s a slim week for economic releases-Washington will be the big focus. The USDA releases a grain production and supply/demand report Tuesday morning.